App Stores vs. the Mobile Web

Ilja Laurs, chief executive of GetJar, a leading independent application store:

"Apps will be as big if not bigger than the internet."

"The full blossom will come in ten years and mobile apps will become as popular as websites are today with consumers."

via BBC News 

Why I blog this: 

Today we've seen two opposing opinions regarding the future of mobile apps vs. the mobile web. Earlier I wrote about Vic Gundotra stating that the browser is the future while Ilja holds the opposite opinion.

The bias is understandable: an app-store executive is seeing his field blossoming, while web-app-centric Google sees the upside on their side.

In my opinion, both are right. Why?

• With ever more powerful mobile phones, an increasing number of app-stores and developers (with monetization options) and a highly improved (even seamless) user experience we'll see mobile apps exploding over the next 3-5 years. 
  

• At the same time browsers will become increasingly powerful, interact with the phones' sensors and built-in features that before only apps could touch AND offer offline functionalities. 

What's missing? Two things (at least):

1. Monetization possibilities for web apps other than advertisement. What's good: users currently get used to paying for applications. If the experience is similar - or even better (connecting on- and offline functionalities; full screen launch of the browser) - my bet is that people will be willing to pay for web-apps, too. Packaging is important here though.
   
2. Findability. Getting away from the catalogue game of the current app stores, where the top slots take it all (Mr. de Halleux of Playfish is right on this one) is paramount. But I'm sure we'll get there - and see some creative marketing along the way.
   

Question: will there be a time when we cannot tell apart mobile apps from web apps?




PS: while writing this, Helge posted a comment to the previous post in which he rightly addresses security and privacy concerns when relying on the browser as the access mode. He also mentions the inability of web browsers to achieve the richness any OS offers in terms of GUI. What do you think?

Image credit goes to Ryan Orr