Mozilla: Web Apps vs. Native Apps.

Trying to get the word out about their mobile browser, Fennec, Mozilla's Jay Sullivan chimes in on the discussion on the future of web applications compared to native applications:

"As developers get more frustrated with quality assurance, the amount of handsets they have to buy, whether their security updates will get past the iPhone approval process... I think they'll move to the web."

"In the interim period, apps will be very successful. Over time, the web will win because it always does."

"We will sync browser tabs in real time. If you have five, 10, 20 tabs open on your PC and something happens and you have to leave, you can pick up where you left off on your phone."

via Simon and pcPro.

Why I blog this:

Rather than giving new insights, Jay's stating the obvious here: native applications are currently very successful and will continue to be in the future but web apps will also be big. Wow, big news.

Of course being polemic helps to get the word out, but stating that 'the web will win' is nonsense. It's not about 'win or loose' at all. The web on mobiles (no matter how it is delivered) will be huge (see Morgan Stanley: 'Mobile Internet twice the size of Desktop Internet' or ABI Research: '5 billion app downloads in 2014'). We are already seeing a fusion of web apps and native apps anyway: native apps pulling data from webservers, browsers within apps, etc.

For developers it's about delivering the best user experience, ease of programming and updating, monetization options and findability of their service. For users, speed, reliability and ease-of-use are very important.

And most importantly, on mobile it's all about catering to the user's one specific, immediate need - not replicating the desktop web experience (i.e. browsing with 20 tabs).

Opinions?

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What others are thinking about this:

Jason Grigsby and Raven Zachary on web apps vs. native apps
Nick Smolney on mobile sites vs mobile apps
Fabrizio Capobianco on a world without the browser
Ilja Laurs on app stores vs the mobile web
Vic Gundotra on the future of app stores
Ray Ozzie and Bob Muglia on web apps vs native apps  

Web Apps vs. Native Apps: Opinions

Jason Grigsby (@grigs) of CloudFour says:

"After launching the Obama app, we had people coming to us for native apps every day, but we decided we only wanted to do mobile web apps. Philosophically, I don't see any way that web app technology isn't going to be bigger than distributing apps through an app store. As the demographics of users change, you'll find people aren't going to spend their time browsing the app store. They will go to browse the web and they aren't going to install something unless it's heavily promoted. Who's going to do that? Small businesses are going to need mobile apps if they are going to be found at all."

Raven Zachary (@ravenme) of SmallSociety thinks:

"[Users] already browse the web more than anything else, with the possible exception of listening to music. Apps appeal to consumers in a way that the web simple doesn't today. The first step is getting a great mobile browser into the hands of consumers. That cuts out pretty much all Nokia, Windows Mobile and Blackberry consumers right away. That's a huge portion of the market. That's going to take years to rollout, and for those consumers to adapt. Meanwhile, iPhone app market keeps growing."

via @Sascha and the NYTimes. Highlights by me.

Why I blog this: 

Interesting to hear these opinions. While Marshall Kirkpatrick (of RWW) tries to show them as oppositional in the NYT article, both experts actually say the same thing: web apps will be huge on mobiles. The only thing Raven adds is that it'll take time (and quite a bit of that) until web apps will draw level with native apps in terms of user experience. In the meantime: plenty of time for native apps to set the bar very high. Which is good for all of us.

Here's some other opinions that I covered on the same topic:

Nick Smolney on mobile sites vs mobile apps
Fabrizio Capobianco on a world without the browser
Ilja Laurs on app stores vs the mobile web
Vic Gundotra on the future of app stores
Microsoft on web apps vs native apps

Enjoy! 

Mobile Apps Roundtable (LeWeb09)

What about fragmentation?
Across the panel, focus currently is on the iPhone, but other platforms are very important. Great prospects there. But Android will be coming up strong in 2010.
... want to remind you of a quote by Ilja Laurs: 'in 5 yrs we'll only have 5 app stores. to support 10.000 apps you need 10m users. #mobilecontent' (Link)


What about the carriers?
'Not all carriers are equal'. 'There's an incredible fight for visibility and awareness'. Christophe Francois (Orange).
'The company behind Shazam has been around for seven years'. 'Our strategy is to be ubiquitous - and we do this with the carriers and handset manufactures' 'Over time it's about discovery, about differentiation, about raising awareness'. 'In order to go global you have to fully committed: you have to show that your product actually works. Then you have to resource for it (with a significant amount of VC (US$20m+)'. Andrew Lacy (Tapulous).

In-app purchases?
'2/3 of the purchases were 2.99 (other in-app purchase at 0.99)'. 'Conversion rate of in-app purchases was 6%  - when we tweeted it it went to 8-10% - this points to the vast potential of in-app purchases'. Shervin Pishevar (Social Gaming Network).

Other tips?
'You need to make sure that your app sustains the load in the first couple of hours.' 'Often, because there's so much content out there, the only way to get noticed is to lower your price'. Christophe Francois (Orange).
 'If you make a great application, people will find you. So make great apps!' Andrew Lacy (Tapulous)

What's going to be big?
Location, location, location. And Gaming.

Off to Paris (LeWeb09)

On Tuesday I'll be heading off to Paris for a couple of days to attend LeWeb09 (more on that below), receive my diploma from ESCP Europe and spend some time with old friends. Very much looking forward to these days.

It'll be my first time at LeWeb. Luckily I'm still a student and wouldn't have Loic and Géraldine generously offered some student tickets, it would have been impossible to go (with a price tag of €1.500, the conference doesn't come in cheap). Thanks a lot for this possibility!

In a blogpost over on the Tagcrumbs blog I made a list of things I'm looking forward to most: two of the sessions at LeWeb (mobile app roundtable and a talk on business models for mobile applications) are especially promising and of course I'll be showcasing and testing the Tagcrumbs iPhone application.

I'm also looking forward to exchanging thoughts, ideas and stories with fellow web and mobile entrepreneurs from all over the world. Meeting people from so many different countries - who all try hard to get their start-ups off the ground or have done so successfully in the past - always opens up great opportunities to better understand where we're heading and what will be next.
Most of all I'd like to learn about the approaches start-ups from other European countries take to  successfully establish themselves in the melting pot of languages and cultures that is Europe. And next to celebrating current successes and being inspired by innovative new start-ups this wish is deeply rooted in LeWeb's DNA: connecting European entrepreneurs between themselves and with the rest of the world.
Drop me a line, leave a comment or ping me on Twitter if you'd like to get in touch.